Solar Energy

August/September 2009
Volume 2, Numbers 8/9

Hammered by the recession and excess capacity, the solar energy industry’s revenues declined sharply in 2009, but CCBJ puts the downturn in the context of a longer-term trend toward a high-volume, lower-priced market, particularly for the photovoltaic (PV) segment of the industry. CCBJ estimates that lower pricing and decreased volume will reduce PV manufacturers’ revenues by 27% in 2009, but that recovery will begin in 2010, followed by a return to double-digit growth in 2011 or 2012. PV manufacturers will consolidate and the lower price points will be a long-term reality of the business, driving growth as solar becomes more and more affordable. “What you’re seeing is the maturation and commercialization of the business worldwide,” one analyst told CCBJ. “The price of solar panels will continue to dip to a level that is sustainable for a long-term solar busi¬ness model.”

CCBJ’s quantitative analysis of the solar energy industry includes the value of energy produced, both in electricity from PV and concentrating solar thermal power (CSTP) and heat and hot water from solar water heating (SWH) units. We estimate industry revenues for 2008 at $39.23 billion, declining to $36.85 billion in 2009 (the decline in PV equipment was offset by an increase in energy sales from PV systems).

Inside this Edition:

  • The PV manufacturing segment saw First Solar become the leading supplier of PV cells by the first quarter of 2009, surpassing other market leaders Q-Cells, Suntech and Sharp. In profiles, Executives from SunPower, Suntech and Sharp discuss their strategies to thrive in the increasingly price- and volume-driven U.S. PV business.
  • Regional and local firms still dominate the PV installer market, but about a dozen firms have grown large enough to operate in multiple states, competing with national players such as Sun Edison, SunPower’s Powerlight and Chevron Energy Sources. Alteris, Premier Power and Spanish subsidiary Fotowatio Renewable Ventures (formerly MMA Renewable Ventures) share their insights on the downstream side of the U.S. PV market.
  • Most concentrating solar thermal power (CSTP) project developers are proposing new and emerging technologies such as power tower and dish engine. They say these systems can compete on price with the mature parabolic trough technology, but analysts question whether many proposed projects are really viable at power purchase prices of $0.15 to $0.18 per kwh

Companies and institutions: ACS Cobra, American Electric Power, Black & Veatch, CH2M Hill, Concentrix Solar, eclareon, Emerging Energy Research, Exelon Corp., GE Energy Financial Services, Green Mountain Power, Hudson Clean Energy Partners, iSuppli, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Lockheed Martin, Lonestar Capital Corp., MAC Global Exchange Solar Index, Morningstar, Moser Baer India Ltd., NRG Energy, O’Brien & Gere, Photon Consulting, Renewable Power Systems, Sempra Generation, Southern California Edison, SunRun and more.

Look Inside the Solar Energy II Edition:

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